About

Hello. I’m an economist based in London who has worked on various European and UK macro, financial and banking issues during the post-2007 crisis years.

We economists have always been known for our natural pessimism. For those who work in risk functions, journalism, central banks or regulators , there are extra incentives to focus on the worst outcomes. And particularly since 2008, everyone now wants to be the next Nouriel Roubini, Gillian Tett or Meredith Whitney – which often translates as seeing incipient crises in every market, country or sector.

My inspiration for writing this blog was a series of conversations with colleagues about the euro crisis during spring 2012. They led me to question whether a lot of very clever people have become so worn down by the never-ending market/media focus on possible and plausible ‘tail risks’ to the crisis as to lose track of more realistic scenarios in which things (eventually) turn out a bit better.

So I want to use this blog as a forum to air some more balanced views. To be honest, I can’t promise relentless optimism from this blog: some problems don’t just sort themselves out and I wouldn’t dispute (for instance) that the euro crisis could still get a lot worse before it gets better. But I will at least try to be rationally optimistic where the facts, data and analysis points this way.

I’m aiming to write for both economists and non-economists. I hope you find my thoughts interesting and informative. Any views expressed are my own.

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